Archives (page 43 of 43)

The new mobile revenue split

So O2 has won the exclusive right to iPhone in the UK; but what a price! With the battle heating up between operators, device manufacturers and content providers to divide the spoils of user revenue, this seems to be a massive concession for a UK operator.

[gratuitous picture of an iPhone... in case you can't recall how attractive it is]

iPhone

Capitulating 40% of iPhone associated revenues can't make sense to anyone vaguely familiar with thin operator margins. Vodafone definitely wasn't having any of it. But maybe this is just a big step along the ultimately inevitable path to complete commoditisation of mobile operations. The time has come for the rise of the device and equally the content now reachable following the relatively recent collapse of the walled gardens. This shift in the landscape also represents exciting opportunities to the marketing communicator looking to extend brand presence into consumers' mobile life.

2007: The Info Tech Year Ahead

Niels Bohr said "It is very difficult to make an accurate prediction, especially about the future."

As we ruminate on our 2007 predictions we also consider another of his insights... "Your theory is crazy, but it's not crazy enough to be true."  Only time will tell!

Every year we take stock of the trends of the past twelve months, and take time out to map ahead.

We've distilled some of our favourites here for your consideration today and possible derision twelve months from now...

Internet connectivity and mobile

  • There’s considerable consolidation of ISPs as few but the big boys can afford to deliver triple-play. Today, thinkbroadband.com lists 68 UK ISPs, and this list will whittle down towards 50 by the end of the year
  • 2007 will mark the genuine start of the mobile Web (ie, browser based), a critical part of what has been coined Mobile 2.0. Security concerns will come to the fore as uptake drives through the early-majority phase
  • Nokia will pass Apple as number one for mobile music devices, by number of devices and usage. iTunes sales will decline versus 2006 (although Apple maintains its refusal to break out the numbers) as the market grows more granular, driven by copyright owners' acceptance of less heavily restrictive digital rights management

Nokia%20N73

  • The long-anticipated Apple phone (aka iPhone) will emerge in 2007, but they will need to lean heavily on Motorola, and will it be ready for next week's Macworld expo?
  • A second commercial WiMax service will launch in the UK (although Now continues to struggle to get the formula right)
  • Mobile VoIP gains traction with Nokia’s Gizmo initiative, mobile Skype and Barablu
    2007 is the year of IPTV in the UK (as opposed to TV on your phone, for which we wonder if there will ever be a year).

Web 2.0 +

  • The rise and rise of social networks continues, but Myspace's userbase peaks mid-year at 65 million (note: that's users, not the more often quoted but irrelevant accounts) as it becomes apparent such services don't benefit from the same network effect underpinning eBay's continuing success. Indeed, the next generation needs to find "its own cool"; perhaps 2007 is the year of Wallop
  • RSS / newsreaders will go mainstream end-07 as its use is simplified and integrated into the general Web experience and browsers
  • Digg peaks in Spring and then experiences a decline as it becomes apparent the democracy isn’t working (unless they take some good advice)
  • Increasing interest is placed on tapping collective human intelligence to complement machine processing. Compare Digg and RedDit to Google News (whoops!), watch out for Search Wikia, and you'll love this game and why it's very interesting indeed
  • The semantic Web gets closer (ie, starts to be applied in earnest) and the pundits argue the merits of top-down text analytics versus bottom-up tagging
  • More pundits will try and use the term “Web 3.0″ without knowing why.

Software

  • Vista's launch to small business and home users is delayed. Then take up is slower than anticipated as it becomes apparent the OS really needs 2GB RAM not 512MB (alright, maybe 1GB will suffice)
  • Microsoft's core business will continue to come under attack. Business will question the need for Office 2007 when most of their "power users" acquire the moniker just because they can create tables of content in Word automatically; Firefox will continue to take market share from IE; and Google will continue its recent trend of cross-selling its web-based applications at the cost of clientside software
  • SaaS will rise meteorically. Companies to watch include salesforce.com (of course, and companies building on their Apex platform such as DreamFactory), 37signals and Taleo. Related trends include equipping organisations' non-expert staff with the tools to mashup enterprise data and services, enabled by companies such as Teqlo, and the rise of "serviced clients" to enable offline working and clientside maintenance for user-driven data composition
  • 2007 will be the biggest year yet for CRM and Business Intelligence investment as return on investment becomes increasingly tangible.

Hardware

  • The 2006 trend for enterprise storage consolidation will gather pace in 2007 as organisations seek to unify storage, reduce operational costs, instigate server virtualisation and reduce space requirements and heat generation. They'll also continue migration from fibre channel to IP for all but the very highest performance applications. The ROI for such consolidation should be a no-brainer for many
  • Saying that, could 2007 be the year of the storage service provider?
  • Intel may just make it this year with a WiMax integrated system-on-chip Centrino
  • A no-name 32″ HD LCD will cost less than £400 (incl. VAT) by the end of the year, despite a mid-year hike in the cost of LCD panels as demand exceeds supply
  • HP will extend its lead as the number one manufacturer of desktop and mobile PCs
  • Having been announced in May 2005, Sony’s PS3 finally launches in the UK, and rapidly accrues a fabulous reputation despite the high cost. It becomes a must-have sensation, and the pivot in the Blu-ray .v. HD-DVD war, which will be concluded sometime in 2009!  But more about that this time next year.

PS3

myChannel

It started with the town crier. Then the daily newspaper. It broadened with radio and then television. Communication now comes at you from all angles – via papers, magazines, journals, radio, digital radio, satellite radio, terrestrial TV, TV text services, digital TV, satellite TV, cable TV, mobile portals, push alerts on mobile devices, newsgroups, websites, RSS newsfeeds, streaming media services and pod-casting.

The choice has become so complex for consumers that there is even a choice of magazines and websites dedicated to helping us make a choice. The selection and diversity will continue to grow but the act of “choosing” is about to change significantly. We are returning to just one channel – myChannel.

This article isn’t just some futuristic dreamscape – there are innovative and concrete services today that don’t just hint at the future, they belie it with an uncanny accuracy. They work. Adoption is widespread and fast. They change the rules.

As communication consultants, we anticipate these developments and adapt our methods and consultancy to our clients accordingly. If Fuse adapts faster than our competitors then our clients prosper, and so do we.

Let’s look at some of the characteristics of the latest communication innovations. It turns out, there are some common threads.

RSS

A recent report from Jupiter Research (“Addressing Market Opportunities with an Innovative News Medium”, 11th March 2005) quantifies RSS penetration by consumers at home at 12%. The primary advantages RSS delivers the users are:

  • Choice – the user can pick and choose specific newsfeeds one at a time, and subscription to lists of feeds with a common theme (eg, technology news, health, education) is increasingly popular. With the advent of endeavours such as attention.xml, consumers may associate themselves with peers whose opinion they value to allow news of potentially higher interest bubble to the top
  • Collation – multiple sources are centralised for the user’s convenience
  • In your own time – the sources can be examined at any time
  • Filtering – the sources can be examined in any way.

Pod-casting

As with all successful mass-market electronic devices, the ways in which the Apple iPod is put to use has extended beyond the original vision of its creators. Pod-casting is one such application of the iPod.

Quite simply, pod-casting is the downloading of often transient audio material from the Internet and transferral to the iPod for listening to later. The material can be specifically sought, or a regular source can be downloaded and transferred automatically as it becomes available – general news, specialist news, and audio magazines. Of course, pod-casting can be defined as “audio RSS”, and this will develop to “audio-visual RSS” as more mobile devices permit video storage and play.

The primary advantages to the user:

  • Choice – the user chooses what to listen to and when, rather than being dictated to by broadcast schedules and reception (London Underground doesn’t offer ideal radio reception, nor is Radio 4’s Today programme easily picked up in New York)
  • Collation – multiple sources are centralised for the user’s convenience
  • In your own time – the sources can be listened to at any time
  • Filtering – only download what you want, and skip through that too (watch out for audio-visual search technologies such as Blinkx)

On-demand digital radio

Digital radio is offering greater choice and clearer reception, and innovative services enabled by companies such as Otodio will soon tempt listeners with a diverse selection of on-demand programming. Listeners have choice in their own time.

On-demand platform-agnostic video

A new era of video distribution is being chimed in with the increasing success of super-fast consumer broadband, such as the 8Mb service from UK Online, the Personal Video Recorder (PVR) as pioneered by TiVo, and Video on Demand (VoD) services, such as from Video Networks. The term IPTV is being bandied around (TV over IP) to describe what would otherwise be labelled television on demand.

The primary advantages to the user: choice, in your own time with filtering.

myThis and myThat

Websites are becoming increasingly flexible in enabling visitors to customise their content preferences and in anticipating user needs intelligently (see Touch Clarity). This trend is compounded as users’ expectations grow to the extent where mass personalisation has become a ‘qualifying’ rather than ‘winning’ criteria. The advantages to the user include choice (of the most apt personalisation), collation, and access in their own time and filtering.

One channel, or infinite?

So there’s a common theme here. The user, the recipient of news and information, the listener, the viewer, the inter-actor, has been empowered to set the schedule. It’s what they want, when they want it and how they want it. They have one channel (at least they will have when future technology converges the channels described here) and they own it. It is myChannel.

But what are the ramifications for those trying to get their news or their clients’ news on to myChannel? The impacts will be manifold and include:

  • Considerably more fragmentation of the target audience of communications campaigns
  • Less precise timing of delivery
  • Increased opportunity to provide niche information
  • Less certainty of how each recipient is receiving the information
  • Greater opportunity for innovation in inviting and securing interaction
  • The need for new mechanisms for gauging campaign success.

 

The word “broadcast” is being resigned to history – there just won’t be a communication medium that has the breadth to be described as “broad”. Intelligent and insightful PR consultancy has never been so critical to organisations striving to communicate effectively to a mass audience seeking to exert selectivity in the face of too much information, too much choice!